邓正红能源软实力：原油市场对地缘局势的反应强烈 全球能源流动的隐性控制

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is reacting strongly to the escalating protests in Iran and the U.S. threats of retaliation, leading to an upward release of oil soft power, with oil prices rising on January 9 [1] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - On January 9, 2021, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures settled at $59.12 per barrel, up $1.36, a 2.35% increase, while Brent crude oil futures settled at $63.34 per barrel, up $1.35, a 2.18% increase [1] - The market is increasingly concerned about the risk of supply disruptions from Iran, a major oil producer, which could have a more profound impact compared to the uncertain supply outlook from Venezuela [1][4] Group 2: U.S. Strategy and Soft Power - The U.S. is employing a strategy that combines soft and hard power to manage oil supply dynamics, including relaxing sanctions on Russia and pressuring Saudi Arabia to increase production, thereby weakening OPEC's pricing power [3][4] - The Trump administration's narrative links Iranian protests to oil exports, creating a "political black box premium" that influences market perceptions and pricing [2] - The U.S. is using unilateral sanctions and legal actions to redefine global oil trade rules, effectively controlling energy flows without direct military intervention [3][4] Group 3: Market Reactions and Risk Premiums - The market is interpreting political statements and actions as signals of potential supply chain disruptions, leading to an increase in Brent crude oil risk premiums [4] - The uncertainty surrounding Venezuelan oil supply, coupled with the U.S. plan to release millions of barrels into the global market, is expected to exert short-term downward pressure on prices, but the long-term implications of Iranian supply disruptions remain significant [4]