美国2%的通胀目标失效了？38万亿美债压顶，能否挽救4.6%失业率

Group 1 - The core argument suggests that the U.S. may abandon its 2% inflation target, with employment issues remaining unresolved even if this occurs [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate of price stability and full employment is facing structural conflict, as employment has become a dominant variable in the U.S. political system [2][5] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the unemployment rate will drop to 4.6% this year and further to 4.4% by 2028, indicating a classic dilemma for the Federal Reserve [5] Group 2 - The current rise in unemployment is characterized as structural rather than cyclical, primarily due to AI replacing human jobs [6] - A McKinsey survey indicates that 78% of organizations are using AI in at least one business function, a 40% increase from 2023 [8] - Research shows that 38% of executives trust AI for business decision-making, and 44% prefer AI reasoning over their own insights, highlighting a shift in reliance on AI [10] Group 3 - The potential for monetary easing to stimulate employment may backfire, as it could accelerate the replacement of workers with AI tools rather than creating traditional jobs [10][12] - The abandonment of the 2% inflation target in favor of employment may not effectively address the structural challenges posed by AI, potentially leading to deeper systemic risks [12]