GUOSHENG SECURITIES(SZ:002670) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-10 05:53Core Insights - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in 2025 is expected to remain flat compared to the previous year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to decline by 2.6% [1] Group 1: CPI Analysis - CPI has shown a continuous recovery for four months, reaching a new high since March 2023, with core CPI maintaining above 1% for the same duration [1] - Prices of core goods such as household appliances and gold jewelry continue to exhibit strength [1] Group 2: PPI Analysis - PPI has increased for three consecutive months, with an expanding growth rate, primarily driven by the non-ferrous and "anti-involution" industries [1] - Prices in the oil and petrochemical industry chain continue to decline [1] Group 3: 2026 Outlook - For 2026, the report anticipates a continuation of the price recovery trend observed in the latter half of 2025, influenced by recent commodity price movements and the "replacement basket" effect [1] - Core CPI is expected to remain strong, with a projected year-on-year central tendency of around 0.7%, driven by policies such as trade-in programs, narrowing rental declines, and rising gold and service prices [1] - Assuming the central price of London gold is $4,500 per ounce, gold jewelry is expected to contribute approximately 0.3% to the CPI in 2026 [1] - PPI is projected to have a year-on-year central tendency of around -0.4%, supported by demand in coal, steel, lithium carbonate, and copper due to "anti-involution," energy storage needs, and AI-related demand [1]