中银证券徐高：美元全球大循环会逐步走向衰落

Core Viewpoint - The global circulation of the US dollar is expected to gradually decline over a long-term period of approximately 20-30 years, which has significant implications for China [3][6]. Group 1: Long-term Implications - In the long run, the internationalization of the RMB should not aim to replace the US dollar, as this could lead to domestic industrial hollowing out due to capital outflow, similar to the current situation in the US. Instead, the focus should be on maintaining trade stability [7]. Group 2: Medium-term Strategies - Given that the US is unwilling to take on the responsibility of creating global demand, China should anticipate long-term downward pressure on external demand. Therefore, it is essential to expand domestic demand, whether through increasing consumption or stimulating investment, to reduce reliance on external demand [7]. Group 3: Short-term Outlook - The extent to which the US is willing to accept the impacts of de-globalization will determine China's external demand outlook for 2026. Currently, the US seems to desire a path of de-globalization while avoiding significant domestic economic costs, which may lead to a stable yet declining external demand outlook for China [7].