国家会稳汇率吗

Core Viewpoint - The article challenges the prevailing notion that the Chinese yuan (RMB) will face intervention against rapid appreciation due to the economy's reliance on exports, arguing that the impact of RMB appreciation on exports is overstated [1] Group 1: Currency Policy and Market Dynamics - The central bank emphasizes the importance of market forces in determining exchange rates, advocating for a managed floating exchange rate system while preventing excessive fluctuations [3] - The central bank aims to manage expectations and prevent extreme capital flows that could destabilize the financial market and economy, highlighting the risks of uncontrolled currency movements [3] - A stable and moderately fluctuating exchange rate is deemed essential for enhancing the RMB's attractiveness as a currency for pricing, settlement, and reserves [3] Group 2: Exchange Rate Mechanism - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) authorizes the foreign exchange trading center to publish the daily midpoint for the RMB against major currencies, allowing for fluctuations within a set range [5] - The midpoint is calculated based on market maker quotes, previous closing prices, and a basket of currencies, with a counter-cyclical factor used to correct market-driven volatility [5] - Since April 2025, the RMB midpoint has steadily appreciated, signaling a clear intention to stabilize exchange rate expectations despite a stronger USD in July and October [5] Group 3: Cross-Border Financing and Future Outlook - Recent adjustments to macro-prudential parameters for cross-border financing have increased limits, alleviating depreciation pressure on the RMB [7] - The central bank issued offshore RMB bills in Hong Kong to tighten offshore liquidity and prevent excessive depreciation [7] - The outlook for 2026 suggests that the RMB is unlikely to experience significant unilateral appreciation or depreciation, with expectations leaning towards "two-way fluctuations with a stronger central tendency" [7]