2025，跨境电商跑进下半场：告别低价，搏杀品牌

Core Insights - 2025 presents significant challenges for cross-border platforms and merchants due to the end of the "small parcel exemption" policy in the U.S. and the establishment of fixed tariffs by the EU, marking the end of the "low-cost direct mail + tax exemption" model that has supported overseas trade for years [2] - Despite the dual pressures of tariffs and compliance, the growth of the "four small dragons" in cross-border e-commerce remains robust, with TikTok Shop and Temu both approaching the $100 billion GMV milestone [2][12] - The industry is transitioning away from reliance on traffic-driven growth towards a long-term operational model centered on compliance and brand development [2] Tariff and Compliance Pressures - In 2025, cross-border merchants are under significant tariff pressure, with the U.S. imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and ending the tax exemption for packages valued at $800 or less [2][3] - A 3 Euro fixed tariff will be applied to small parcels entering the EU valued under 150 Euros starting July 1, 2026, indicating a global shift away from the "tax-free era" [7] - New tax regulations require all platforms serving Chinese operators to report seller identities and transaction data quarterly, marking the entry of cross-border e-commerce into a fully compliant era [8] Growth of the "Four Small Dragons" - In 2025, TikTok Shop's active consumers reached 400 million, with GMV nearing $100 billion, making it the fifth-largest platform globally and the fastest-growing [9] - Temu's projected GMV for 2025 is between $90 billion and $95 billion, with significant growth in downloads and active users [9] - The shift in focus towards the European market is evident, with Temu's monthly active users in Europe surpassing 140 million, contributing 40% of its global GMV [12] Market Trends - The European market is emerging as a new growth engine for cross-border e-commerce, with significant increases in sales and profit margins compared to the U.S. market [4][12] - Brand recognition is becoming a consensus among platforms, with major brands increasingly joining TikTok Shop, reflecting a shift from small merchants to a more diverse ecosystem [13][14] - The introduction of competitive strategies, such as price guarantees by platforms like AliExpress, indicates a move towards brand differentiation and market positioning [14] Conclusion - The cross-border e-commerce landscape in 2025 is characterized by a re-evaluation of growth strategies in light of new tariffs and compliance pressures, with a focus on brand development and market diversification [15] - The integration of AI technologies is expected to reshape the e-commerce landscape, potentially transforming platforms into intelligent shopping assistants [15]