3.93万亿美元！30年第一次：反超美债，黄金成全球最大储备资产！释放了什么危险信号？

Core Viewpoint - A historic shift has occurred as gold has officially surpassed U.S. Treasury bonds to become the largest reserve asset held by global central banks, marking a significant change in the financial landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context and Current Trends - The total value of gold held by central banks has approached $4 trillion, reaching $3.93 trillion, while U.S. Treasury bonds stand at $3.88 trillion, a situation not seen since 1996 [2][4]. - In 2025, gold prices surged, with an annual increase of nearly 70%, peaking above $4,500 per ounce, prompting central banks to aggressively accumulate gold despite its high price [4][6]. - A survey indicated that 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months, with 43% planning to add to their holdings, a record high [5]. Group 2: Motivations Behind Central Banks' Actions - A decline in trust towards U.S. dollar assets is a primary reason for this shift, as concerns over the U.S. national debt exceeding $38 trillion and ongoing political instability have raised doubts about the long-term stability of U.S. Treasury bonds [9]. - Geopolitical tensions have created a "fear premium," leading central banks to view gold as a protective asset against global uncertainties, akin to a financial "bulletproof vest" [10]. - The diversification of reserves is becoming essential, with central banks moving towards a mix of assets, including gold, euros, and renminbi, to reduce reliance on dollar-denominated assets [12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the structural demand for gold will not cease easily, as many emerging market countries still have gold reserve ratios below 10%, indicating room for growth [14]. - Even if the quantity of gold purchased may decrease from peak levels, the value proportion will likely continue to rise, providing support for gold prices [14]. - The shift towards gold signifies a broader trend of increasing volatility and uncertainty in the global financial landscape, prompting a reevaluation of what constitutes reliable wealth [14][15].