2025年，跨境电商跑进下半场：告别低价，搏杀品牌

Core Insights - 2025 presents significant challenges for cross-border platforms and merchants due to the end of the "small exemption" policy in the U.S. and the establishment of fixed tariffs by the EU, marking the end of the "low-price direct mail + tax exemption" model that has supported overseas trade for years [2] - Despite the dual pressures of tariffs and compliance, the growth of the "four dragons" of cross-border e-commerce has not slowed, with TikTok Shop and Temu both approaching the $100 billion GMV mark, and the industry focus shifting from North America to Europe and Latin America [2] Summary by Sections 1. Dual Pressure of Tariffs and Compliance - In 2025, cross-border merchants are under the shadow of tariff pressures, with the U.S. imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese goods starting in February, leading to the suspension of tax exemption for packages valued at $800 or less by August [2][3] - A 3C seller noted that tariff costs increased by approximately 25%, erasing price advantages in the consumer electronics sector, prompting many merchants to seek alternative markets, particularly in Europe, where demand for high-quality products is rising [3] - From January to September 2025, exports to the EU reached $20.5 billion, surpassing the total for 2024, while exports to the U.S. dropped significantly [4] 2. Compliance Challenges - The EU plans to impose a fixed tariff of €3 on small packages valued under €150 starting July 1, 2026, indicating a global shift away from the "tax-free era" [7] - New regulations require all platforms serving Chinese operators to report seller identities and transaction data quarterly, marking the entry of cross-border e-commerce into a fully compliant era [8][9] 3. Growth of the "Four Dragons" - Despite challenges, the "four dragons" of cross-border e-commerce are experiencing substantial growth, with TikTok Shop's GMV nearing $100 billion and Temu's projected GMV between $90 billion and $95 billion for 2025 [10] - TikTok Shop's active consumer base reached 400 million, with a fourth-quarter GMV exceeding $25 billion, surpassing eBay [9][10] 4. Shift to European Markets - The four dragons are increasingly focusing on the European market due to U.S. tariff policies, with Temu's monthly active users in Europe surpassing 140 million, a 74% increase year-on-year [12] - SHEIN is also shifting focus to Europe, with projected revenue growth of 30.7% in 2026, expected to exceed U.S. revenue for the first time [12] 5. Brandization as a Consensus - TikTok Shop is recognized as the third fastest-growing brand in the U.S. in 2025, with a 95% increase in large brands earning over $30 million joining the platform [13][14] - SHEIN opened its first permanent store in Paris, aiming to enhance brand image, while AliExpress launched a "super brand plan" to attract top brands [14] 6. Conclusion - The year 2025 has seen Chinese cross-border e-commerce navigating through policy, cost, and market restructuring, with a shift from low-price driven models to brand-focused and diversified market strategies [15] - AI is poised to reshape the e-commerce landscape, with OpenAI introducing instant checkout features, indicating a future where e-commerce platforms evolve into AI-driven shopping experiences [15]