从“房贷QE”到“信用卡限价”：当特朗普开始亲自定价利率

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is intervening in the credit card interest rate market, proposing a cap of 10%, which reflects a shift in the traditional roles of monetary policy and executive power in determining interest rates [1][10]. Group 1: Mortgage Market Intervention - The Trump administration's approach to the mortgage market involves directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase mortgage-backed securities (MBS), aiming to mitigate the impact of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction on MBS demand [4][5]. - This intervention is characterized by three features: it operates through market transactions rather than direct pricing, it affects spreads rather than benchmark rates, and it has historical precedents in quantitative easing (QE) [5]. Group 2: Credit Card Rate Cap Proposal - The proposal to impose a 10% cap on credit card interest rates is alarming to the market, as credit card rates are not merely a function of funding costs but are influenced by high risk and default rates [6][7]. - Currently, the average APR for credit cards in the U.S. ranges from 20% to 25%, and enforcing a cap at 10% would disrupt the risk pricing mechanism without any fiscal support, potentially leading banks to withdraw from the market [8]. Group 3: Broader Implications of Administrative Intervention - The deeper concern lies in the establishment of a precedent where the executive branch directly intervenes in interest rate settings, which could extend beyond credit cards to other loans such as auto and student loans [10][11]. - If this trend continues, it raises fundamental questions about how financial markets will reprice risk and capital, shifting the determination of interest rates from market forces to political judgments [12].