随着电气化的加速，到2040年铜供应缺口将扩大至1000万吨

Core Insights - A new study by S&P Global Energy and S&P Global Market Intelligence indicates that by 2040, the copper supply shortage could reach 10 million tons, posing "systemic risks" to global industries due to unprecedented consumption driven by artificial intelligence, defense spending, and electrification [2] - The report titled "Copper in the Age of AI: Challenges of Electrification" highlights that even if recycled copper supply doubles to 10 million tons, the shortfall will still be approximately 4.2 million tons, representing 23.8% of the projected demand [2] - The study emphasizes that the increasing importance of copper in AI data centers, electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure, and defense systems could limit technological advancement and economic growth [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global copper production is expected to peak at 33 million tons by 2030 and then decline, while demand is projected to surge by 50% due to accelerated electrification across multiple industries [2][4] - The report identifies four key demand areas driving copper consumption: core economic demand from construction, appliances, and traditional industries is expected to reach 23 million tons by 2040, accounting for 53% of global demand [4] - Energy transition demand from electric vehicles, battery storage, and renewable energy is anticipated to increase by over 7.1 million tons, reaching 15.6 million tons by 2040 [4] Emerging Demand Categories - Two emerging demand categories present additional challenges to supply adequacy: demand from AI and data centers is expected to double, reaching a total installed capacity of 550 GW, more than five times the 2022 level [5] - Defense spending may double to $6 trillion by 2040, contributing an additional 4 million tons of copper demand [5] - Humanoid robots are identified as a potential fifth demand area, with 1 billion operational robots requiring approximately 1.6 million tons of copper annually by 2040, equivalent to 6% of current demand [6] Supply Chain Challenges - The report outlines multiple challenges limiting copper supply, including declining ore grades, rising energy and labor costs, complex mining conditions, and lengthy permitting processes [6] - The average time from discovery to production is 17 years, with environmental disputes and judicial reviews further delaying project progress [6] - The concentration of supply chains poses additional risks, as six countries account for two-thirds of mine production, making global supply vulnerable to policy shocks and trade barriers [6] - The study estimates that in addition to increasing recycling, an extra 10 million tons of primary supply will be needed by 2040; however, without significant investment, global primary production may only reach 22 million tons, 1 million tons lower than current levels [6]