囤积商品的时代来临了

Core Insights - The commodity market is undergoing a significant paradigm shift due to escalating geopolitical tensions and global supply chain restructuring, moving from a "just-in-time" model to a "just-in-case" stockpiling approach [1][2] - Countries are increasingly building strategic reserves to mitigate risks associated with potential wars, shipping disruptions, or geopolitical blockades, leading to a reconfiguration of supply and demand across various commodities [1][4] Group 1: Commodity Trends - Energy and strategic metals are becoming focal points for stockpiling, with countries potentially amassing around 1.4 billion barrels of oil, sufficient to sustain supply for hundreds of days, far exceeding the 90-day international norm [1][3] - The prices of critical military metals such as tungsten and cobalt have experienced significant volatility, with projected price increases of 229% and 120% respectively by 2025 [1][5] Group 2: Investment Implications - The shift in commodity dynamics suggests new trading themes for investors, particularly around "de-dollarization" and the demand for metals driven by national security needs [2][6] - Central banks are accelerating their gold purchases as a hedge against credit risk, with the share of the dollar in global foreign exchange reserves dropping to 56.92%, prompting a shift in gold's pricing logic [6] Group 3: Market Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on capital market opportunities related to this macro narrative, such as European defense stocks and commodity ETFs, as funds are increasingly flowing into "hard assets" [7] - Gold mining stocks are also positioned to benefit, with all tracked gold miners achieving record profits at current gold prices, indicating a strong market for gold as a value storage asset [7]