通缩真的来了吗？从2026年开始，普通人这4件事最好别碰！

Group 1 - The core phenomenon in China's economy is the coexistence of severe monetary overproduction and stable consumer prices, indicating a deflationary cycle [1][3] - As of November 2025, the broad money supply (M2) reached 336.99 trillion yuan, growing by 8% year-on-year, and is twice the GDP size [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for 2025 remained flat compared to the previous year, highlighting the lack of inflation despite the monetary expansion [1] Group 2 - The deflationary cycle is attributed to three main factors: excessive monetary supply circulating within the financial system without reaching the goods market, declining consumer demand due to stagnant or falling incomes, and intense competition leading to price reductions [3][5] - In a deflationary environment, the recommendation is to prioritize cash and avoid high-risk investments such as stocks, real estate, funds, and various financial products, as the risk of asset bubbles increases [5][6] Group 3 - Young individuals are advised against frequently changing jobs due to the shrinking job market and potential difficulties in finding new employment during the deflationary period [6][8] - Entrepreneurs are cautioned against blindly investing in new ventures, as the likelihood of success is low due to weak consumer demand, intense competition, rising operational costs, and the impact of e-commerce on traditional businesses [9][11] Group 4 - Individuals are discouraged from increasing debt levels, especially in a deflationary context where income may decrease or job loss may occur, making it crucial to manage and reduce existing debt [12][13] - Practical strategies for navigating the deflationary environment include reducing unnecessary spending, enhancing professional skills, avoiding reckless investments, and minimizing debt burdens [13]