【南篱/黄金】2026第一次非农

Group A: ETF Holdings - Since December 1, there have been 19 changes in ETF holdings, with 10 increases and 9 decreases, indicating a relatively stable position [3] - In late December, the increase in holdings surged significantly, with five consecutive increases, suggesting a dominant bullish sentiment in the market [5] Group B: Speculative Sentiment Report - The current long-short ratio indicates insufficient downward pressure, making any declines appear as mere adjustments rather than significant sell-offs [6] - From December 16 to December 29, the market has returned to a normal consolidation phase, moving away from extreme positions [8] Group C: Fundamental Analysis 1. U.S. Trade and Political Actions - The U.S. has implemented tariffs to encourage manufacturing return and balance trade deficits, with recent actions including the arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro, raising questions about international law and human rights [9] - The U.S. dollar's reserve status is under threat due to these aggressive actions, increasing interest in gold as a liquid asset [11] 2. Interest Rate Decisions - The year marks a transition for the Federal Reserve, with expectations of a dovish successor to Powell, potentially leading to two rate cuts in 2026 [12][13] 3. Gold Demand and Market Dynamics - Central banks continue to increase gold holdings, with demand expected to remain strong, supporting long-term price increases [14] - The Bloomberg Commodity Index is set for annual rebalancing, which may lead to liquidity pressures due to technical selling by passive funds [14] Group D: Employment Data - The ADP employment report shows a positive trend with an increase of 41,000 jobs, indicating a stabilizing job market [15] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is anticipated to show a slight decrease in unemployment, with expectations set at 6,000 jobs added [17]