不看全国房价！2026楼市结构性机会凸显，分化加剧，该买还是卖？

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 real estate market outlook is focused on identifying evidence of a "stable bottom" rather than merely predicting price fluctuations, with significant implications for the financial market and macroeconomy [1] Policy Direction - The central economic work conference at the end of 2025 shifted its policy focus from "stopping the decline" to "stabilizing the real estate market," emphasizing three core directions: "controlling increments, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply" [2] - Financial regulatory bodies are promoting the inclusion of housing project loans in a whitelist, with over 3 trillion yuan approved by the end of November 2025 [2] Market Stability - The policy focus for 2026 is on "breaking the cycle" and structural optimization, moving from a total shortage to a basic balance in the real estate market, addressing the upgrade in residents' demand from "availability" to "quality" [5] - Institutions generally believe that the 2026 real estate market will not experience a "V-shaped reversal," but rather a trend of "overall stability with continued differentiation" [7] Evidence Chain for Market Bottom - The capital market assesses the sustainability of the market bottom through a complete evidence chain of "transaction volume - inventory - credit - price," with transaction volume being a primary observation point [9] - The current market is in a phase of stabilizing transaction volume declines, with institutions tracking key cities' transaction rhythms and the effectiveness of loan rate and down payment adjustments [11] Inventory and Credit Factors - The efficiency of inventory reduction is crucial for determining the thickness of the market bottom, with concerns about local fiscal pressures and execution mechanisms potentially hindering progress [13] - Positive signals are emerging, with a significant reduction in narrow inventory by 42.85 million square meters since the beginning of 2025, alleviating short-term inventory pressure [15] Price Expectations - Price predictions focus on structural differences rather than national averages, with attention on the resilience of core urban areas and the structural support from quality new homes [15] - The mainland market is expected to see new home prices outperforming second-hand homes, with increasing disparities between cities [17] Variables Influencing Recovery - Despite a consensus on "stability," different institutions have varying estimates for core indicators due to differing assumptions about three key variables: policy strength, implementation efficiency, and recovery models [19][21] - The uncertainty of policy strength is a primary concern, with expectations that confidence recovery will take time, leading to continued pressure on investment and sales in 2026 [19]