王石预言或要成真了？40%以上城镇家庭，2026年将面临3大难题

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a significant shift from a supply-demand imbalance to an oversupply situation, leading to a decline in property values and a reassessment of investment strategies among property owners [1][3][12] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The average living space per person in Chinese cities has increased from 5 square meters to 40 square meters since the reform era, indicating that housing demand has largely been met [3] - The proportion of commercial housing in China is as high as 80%, a unique phenomenon globally, suggesting a saturated market [3] - Over 40% of urban families own more than one property, previously viewing real estate as a reliable investment, but this perception is now under threat [3][4] Group 2: Challenges for Property Owners - Property owners are facing a gradual decline in property values, averaging a 3% annual decrease, which accumulates to significant losses over time [4] - The secondary housing market is experiencing low demand, making it difficult for owners to sell properties, leading to liquidity issues [4][5] - The anticipated implementation of property taxes poses a significant financial burden on owners of multiple properties, increasing holding costs regardless of market conditions [5][10] Group 3: Changing Demographics and Demand - Declining marriage and birth rates are reducing the traditional demand for housing, while new construction continues, leading to rising vacancy rates in urban areas [7] - Some cities report vacancy rates exceeding 20%, indicating a saturated market where supply outstrips demand [7][10] Group 4: Investment Strategies and Future Outlook - Property owners are at a crossroads, needing to reassess their strategies as the previous logic of real estate as a guaranteed investment is no longer valid [10][12] - The market is experiencing a divide, where prime properties may retain value while less desirable locations face steep declines [10][12] - Owners are encouraged to consider selling non-core properties to mitigate losses, as waiting for a market recovery may not yield positive results [11][12]