黄金碾压美债！30年首夺储备之王，普通人该抄底还是跑路？

Core Viewpoint - Gold has officially surpassed U.S. Treasury bonds to become the world's largest reserve asset for the first time in 30 years, indicating a significant shift in global financial dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Gold vs. U.S. Treasury Bonds - As of the end of 2025, global central bank gold reserves are valued at $3.93 trillion, while U.S. Treasury bonds hold a value of $3.88 trillion [3]. - The last time gold held this position was in 1996, marking a long-term trend rather than a short-term fluctuation [3]. - Central banks are increasingly favoring gold over U.S. Treasury bonds, with significant purchases recorded in recent years [4][5]. Group 2: Central Bank Behavior - In the first three quarters of 2025, global central banks purchased a total of 634 tons of gold, with projections suggesting annual purchases will exceed 1,000 tons for the fourth consecutive year [4]. - The People's Bank of China has also been actively increasing its gold reserves, reaching approximately 2,304 tons by the end of October 2025 [5]. - In contrast, foreign official institutions have significantly reduced their net purchases of U.S. securities, with a 94.4% decrease noted in the second quarter of 2025 [5]. Group 3: Trust and Risk Factors - The decline in trust towards U.S. Treasury bonds is attributed to concerns over U.S. financial practices, including the use of financial sanctions [7][8]. - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, raising fears of potential defaults or devaluation through monetary policy [8][9]. - The shift from U.S. Treasury bonds to gold reflects a broader trend of diminishing confidence in fiat currencies [9]. Group 4: Market Predictions - Analysts have differing views on gold's future, with some predicting prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by 2026, while others caution against potential corrections due to speculative buying [10][11]. - Factors supporting gold's price increase include accelerated de-dollarization, ongoing central bank purchases, and persistent geopolitical risks [11]. - Risks to gold's valuation include high current prices, supply constraints, and potential competition from digital currencies [11]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised against over-investing in gold, with recommendations suggesting a portfolio allocation of 10%-20% [13]. - Caution is advised against using loans to purchase gold, as this could lead to significant financial losses [13]. - Legitimate investment channels for gold include bank-issued paper gold, gold ETFs, and standard gold bars, while avoiding high-yield platforms that may be fraudulent [13][14].