罗兰贝格郑赟：中国车企出海会迎来一两年平台期，需要设定阶段性目标

Core Insights - The report "Forecast 2026: China Industry Trends" by Roland Berger highlights the strategic transformation of China towards high-quality development and sustainable modernization, emphasizing the need for persistent efforts and a comprehensive strategy to enhance productivity and consumer confidence [1][3]. Group 1: Automotive Industry Trends - The Chinese automotive industry is undergoing significant transformation, with total sales expected to reach approximately 34 million units in 2025, including around 7 million exports, and a monthly average of 3 million passenger vehicles [4][5]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) has surpassed 60% by December 2025, indicating a rapid transition from traditional fuel vehicles to electric vehicles within five years [4][5]. - Despite the growth in volume, the automotive industry's profit margin remains low at about 4.4%, with over 50% of dealers experiencing losses and an average vehicle price declining by approximately 9% year-on-year [4][5]. Group 2: Key Transformation Lines - Six key transformation lines are identified as critical for industry competition in 2026: elimination race, deepening transformation, internationalization, technology competition, capital race, and AI competition [6][7]. - The "elimination race" suggests a market structure where a few leading companies dominate, while the "deepening transformation" indicates a shift from traditional vehicles to smart mobility devices integrated with advanced technologies [6][7]. - The automotive industry is expected to further localize operations globally, enhancing service to consumers through localized employment and product adaptation [6][7]. Group 3: Global Expansion of Chinese Automakers - Chinese automotive exports are projected to enter a "platform period" over the next one to two years, with an optimistic long-term outlook despite facing local protectionism and compliance challenges [10][12]. - By 2030, the export volume of Chinese vehicles is anticipated to reach between 8 million and 10 million units, transitioning from rapid growth to a focus on quality, profitability, and brand development [12][16]. - The main challenge for Chinese automakers abroad is adapting to local markets, necessitating coordination between headquarters and local operations, as well as building local supply chains [14][15].