十七万亿石油争夺战终结，美国高调介入却悄然撤退，真正败因终于浮出水面

Group 1 - The presence of the U.S. military in Venezuela has paradoxically led to a significant drop in black market oil prices by 40%, contrary to expectations that military control would stabilize prices [1] - Workers at PDVSA are engaging in non-violent resistance, including sabotaging equipment and mixing gasoline with diesel, which has resulted in a significant number of inoperable vehicles in Caracas [3][5] - The political and economic turmoil has led to a situation where the military's presence is ineffective against the organized resistance of local workers, who leverage their control over essential services [5][7] Group 2 - The operational state of PDVSA's facilities is dire, with many sites resembling industrial graveyards due to years of neglect and lack of maintenance [11][13] - Technical challenges are compounded by outdated technology and software, making it nearly impossible to restart operations without significant investment and time [13][15] - Environmental issues, such as oil leaks and rodent infestations, further complicate the operational landscape, leading to additional costs and delays [16] Group 3 - The cost of extracting Venezuelan oil is prohibitively high, with a cash cost of $39 per barrel, significantly above the competitive threshold of $22 [18] - Political risk premiums for investments in Venezuela are alarmingly high, with estimates suggesting a 38% risk premium, indicating a strong aversion from investors [20] - Legal risks associated with potential sanctions and compliance issues make investment in Venezuelan oil projects appear more like a political gamble than a sound business decision [22] Group 4 - The talent pool in Venezuela's oil industry is severely depleted, with a staggering 91% attrition rate among graduates from the country's oil university between 2020 and 2024 [24][26] - The aging faculty and lack of modern training resources hinder the development of new talent, which is critical for the future of the oil industry [26] - The collapse of the training system means that it will take years to rebuild the workforce necessary for a functional oil industry, further delaying any potential recovery [26]