别死磕金铜！2026稀土+钴成低估王，供需政策共振两年有望翻倍

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that rare earths and cobalt are significantly undervalued compared to gold and copper, which have become crowded investment options. It suggests that these materials, supported by tightening supply, surging demand, and favorable policies, have the potential to double in value over the next two years. Group 1: Supply Constraints - The supply of rare earths is tightly controlled by the government, with annual quotas for mining and processing set by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. By 2025, imported ores will also be included in these controls, leading to a more concentrated supply structure [3] - The supply of cobalt is heavily impacted by export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which are expected to be significantly reduced by 2026. This creates a challenging environment for increasing supply, despite rising demand forecasts [3] Group 2: Demand Surge - The demand for rare earths is driven by the booming electric vehicle and wind energy sectors, with a reported 38.9% increase in electric vehicle production in April 2025. Additionally, the anticipated production of humanoid robots will further increase the demand for rare earth materials [4] - Cobalt is essential for batteries in smartphones and energy storage systems, with demand expected to rise sharply due to the continuous growth in global electric vehicle sales and energy storage installations. The International Energy Forum predicts explosive growth in demand for critical minerals like cobalt over the next 20 years [4] Group 3: Policy and Valuation Support - Recent policies, such as the "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Nonferrous Metals Industry (2025-2026)," support the development and technological advancement of strategic resources like rare earths and cobalt, significantly reducing investment risks [5] - The current valuation of rare earths and cobalt is low, with the rare earth industry index trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of just over 60, while the industry is expected to grow at 30%. This mismatch indicates substantial room for valuation recovery [5]