Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson Sees 'Crystal Clear' Earnings Growth, Says 'Big Beautiful Bill' Will Fuel Consumer Stocks Rally

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson presents a bullish outlook for the U.S. equity market, predicting high teens earnings growth and focusing on the consumer goods sector as a key investment area [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Drivers - Wilson describes the market's path as "crystal clear," driven by a stabilizing Federal Reserve and legislative support that will rejuvenate the consumer sector [2]. - He emphasizes a combination of falling interest rates and fiscal stimulus as factors that will unlock pent-up demand in the consumer goods sector [2][3]. Group 2: Consumer Goods Sector Performance - Wilson identifies consumer goods as his top conviction pick for the year, suggesting that the sector is poised for a rebound after experiencing a "rolling recession" [2]. - The Dow Jones U.S. Consumer Goods Index has shown a performance of 9.62% over the last six months, while year-to-date performance is -1.40% and one-year performance is 6.42% [4]. Group 3: Earnings Outlook - Contrary to concerns about a slowdown, Wilson asserts that the earnings outlook is strengthening, forecasting earnings growth in the "high teens" as the market rally expands beyond the technology sector [5]. - A significant factor in this optimism is the Federal Reserve's renewed asset purchasing to stabilize funding markets, which Wilson views as a positive development for investors [6].