61城房价跌回2016年，70%家庭资产缩水，800万新生儿预警楼市！

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that housing is the largest asset for ordinary families in China, highlighting the financial strain many face due to falling property values and high mortgage debts [1][27]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - As of December 2025, 61 cities in China are experiencing declining second-hand home prices, causing anxiety among families [5]. - Property prices in major cities like Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou have reverted to levels seen in 2015 and 2016, leading to a perception of potential bargains for first-time buyers [7]. - Many families have over 70% of their net assets tied up in real estate, making them vulnerable to market fluctuations [9]. Group 2: Psychological Impact on Homeowners - Homeowners who purchased at high prices are facing significant asset depreciation, leading to feelings of financial insecurity [13]. - The situation has created a "negative equity" scenario for many, where their property value is less than their mortgage debt, causing distress [15]. - The decline in housing market confidence has led to reduced consumer spending and a drop in birth rates, as young people feel uncertain about their financial futures [19]. Group 3: Developer and Financial Sector Challenges - Developers are struggling, with many facing defaults or project delays, affecting over 300,000 households [21]. - The tightening of financing channels has resulted in significant debt pressures for developers, with 2.3 trillion yuan in bonds maturing [23]. - Major banks are also feeling the strain, with non-performing loan rates creeping up, leading to stricter mortgage approval processes [25]. Group 4: Government Response and Policy Changes - The central government acknowledges the importance of housing as a key asset for families and is taking measures to stabilize the economy and consumer confidence [27]. - Policies have shifted to provide home purchase subsidies and lower mortgage rates, particularly in major cities [29]. - The government aims to prevent a drastic decline in property values while acknowledging that the era of rapid price increases is over, focusing instead on gradual market stabilization [33]. Group 5: Future Market Outlook - The housing market is expected to transition back to its fundamental purpose of providing shelter rather than being a speculative investment [35]. - There will be a clear market differentiation, with properties in prime locations maintaining their value while less desirable properties may only serve basic living needs [37]. - The ongoing "defense" of the housing market is crucial for restoring public confidence and ensuring that housing remains a viable asset for families [36].