China Plans to Approve Imports of Nvidia's H200 AI Chips as Early as This Quarter. Here's What It Means for Investors

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is reportedly set to approve the import of Nvidia's H200 AI chips, marking a significant opportunity for the company to reenter a crucial market after previous bans [1][9]. Group 1: Market Opportunity - Nvidia's revenue from China in calendar 2024 was $17.1 billion, despite existing export restrictions on its top-tier chips [4]. - CEO Jensen Huang indicated that demand for these chips in China is "very high," with potential sales exceeding $50 billion annually if approved [5]. - The company has orders for over 2 million H200 chips from Chinese customers, priced at $27,000 each, potentially generating additional revenue of about $54 billion [6]. Group 2: Financial Impact - The expected 25% export levy to the U.S. government would reduce Nvidia's net revenue from these orders to over $40 billion [6]. - Current sales to China are not included in Nvidia's revenue outlook, suggesting a material increase in guidance if these sales are realized [7]. - Analysts estimate Nvidia's revenue for next year at $320 billion, and the addition of $40 billion from China could elevate earnings per share (EPS) to $8.29, potentially driving the share price to around $380 [8].