2025年中国乘用车销售近3000万辆，新能源销量过半

Core Insights - In 2025, China's passenger car market is projected to produce 29.63 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.4% [1] - Wholesale sales are expected to reach 29.55 million units, up 8.8% year-on-year, while retail sales are forecasted at 23.74 million units, marking a 3.8% increase [1] Production and Sales Data - Cumulative production of new energy passenger vehicles is anticipated to be 15.35 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 26.1% [2] - Wholesale sales of new energy vehicles are projected at 15.32 million units, increasing by 25.2% year-on-year, and retail sales are expected to reach 12.81 million units, up 17.6% [2] Market Share and Brand Performance - In 2025, domestic brands are expected to capture 65% of the retail market share, an increase of 4.8 percentage points from the previous year [6] - The top ten wholesale sales rankings include BYD, Geely, Chery, Changan, FAW-Volkswagen, Great Wall, SAIC-GM-Wuling, SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC Passenger Cars, and Tesla China, with most brands (except FAW-Volkswagen, SAIC Volkswagen, and Tesla China) showing year-on-year growth [3][4] Export Trends - Passenger car exports are projected to reach 5.739 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, with new energy vehicle exports at 2.422 million units, up 86.2% [6] - The export of fuel vehicles is expected to decline by 5% [6] Market Dynamics - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is nearing 60%, indicating a shift towards a "new energy-dominated" market phase [7] - The end of the vehicle purchase tax exemption is expected to boost new energy retail performance, achieving historical highs [6] Future Outlook - For January 2026, a slight year-on-year sales increase is anticipated due to more working days compared to the previous year [9] - New policies aimed at promoting domestic automotive consumption are expected to further stimulate sales [9]