太空光伏与“轨道数据中心”：为什么下一代能源与算力的战场，会在800km的高空？

Core Viewpoint - Space photovoltaic technology is evolving from a supporting system for spacecraft to a core energy solution for next-generation space infrastructure, driven by the acceleration of global satellite deployment and the rising demand for space computing power [1] Group 1: Satellite Deployment and Market Dynamics - China applied for frequency resources for over 200,000 satellites by December 2025, with 190,000 from the newly established "national team" [1] - The U.S. FCC approved SpaceX to deploy an additional 7,500 second-generation Starlink satellites, bringing the total approved to 15,000 [1] - The global spacecraft launch volume has maintained a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34% over the past decade, with an expected launch number exceeding 4,300 by 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of over 50% [3][1] Group 2: Space Computing Centers and Energy Requirements - The rise of space computing centers is opening new possibilities, with projects like China's "Trisolaris Computing Constellation" and SpaceX's Starcloud targeting space data center construction [2] - A potential 10GW space computing system could lead to a solar wing market size of several trillion yuan [2] - The evolution of satellite functions is reshaping energy system requirements, with significant increases in single-satellite power demands [10][12] Group 3: Energy Supply and Technological Developments - The space photovoltaic industry is experiencing a "volume and price increase" scenario, driven by the surge in satellite numbers and the rising power density of individual satellites [14] - Photovoltaic technology is the only efficient and stable energy form for satellites in space, with the need for larger solar wings leading to concerns about weight and cost [12] - The technology route for space photovoltaics is diversifying, with gallium arsenide (GaAs) batteries dominating the high-end market due to their efficiency, while silicon-based heterojunction (HJT) and perovskite technologies are gaining traction for large-scale applications [19][22] Group 4: Economic Considerations and Future Outlook - The explosion of space photovoltaics is reshaping the value logic of the photovoltaic industry, transitioning from a closed military aerospace system to commercial photovoltaic enterprises with large-scale manufacturing capabilities [25] - SpaceX's low launch costs encourage the use of lower-cost silicon-based batteries, while China's higher launch costs still favor the use of expensive GaAs batteries, although a shift towards silicon-based technologies is anticipated [26] - The low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite market could generate nearly 200 billion yuan in solar wing market space with the launch of 10,000 satellites, and the construction of a future 10GW space computing system could expand the market size to several trillion yuan [30]