全球92%稀土精炼产能在中国！白宫做梦想去中国化，现实太骨感？

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing competition between the US and China over rare earth elements is not just about resource control but also about the industrial systems and strategic patience that underpin these resources [24] Group 1: Rare Earth Elements Overview - Rare earth elements are crucial for various technologies, including chips, missiles, electric vehicles, and fighter jets [1] - The US aims to break China's monopoly on rare earths, but the reality is more complex than it appears [3] Group 2: China's Dominance in Rare Earth Processing - China holds 92% of the global rare earth separation capacity, with heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium almost entirely dependent on Chinese supply [6] - By the end of 2025, 100% of heavy rare earths and over 60% of light rare earths imported by the US will still come from China [6] Group 3: US Efforts and Challenges - The US government has invested significantly in rare earth projects, including a $400 million stake in MP Materials and a $200 million investment in recycling technology [11] - However, many of these projects are in early stages or face technological bottlenecks, with some facilities not expected to be operational until 2028 [13] Group 4: Strategic Competition in Technology - The competition between the US and China is also reflected in key technology sectors, with the US betting on rare earth independence while China focuses on advancements in semiconductor and aerospace technologies [17] - China's C919 aircraft, equipped with domestically produced engines, is expected to enter commercial operation around 2027, potentially breaking the US's hold on large aircraft engines [19] Group 5: Long-term Implications - The race to achieve domestic alternatives in critical technology areas will determine strategic advantages, with the potential for China to gain the upper hand if it achieves breakthroughs in EUV lithography and engine production by 2027-2028 [22] - The rare earth conflict is ultimately a battle of industrial systems and the ability to endure over time, with China's decades of accumulated expertise creating a formidable barrier to US efforts [24]