徐高：美元全球大循环的衰落是一个长期、渐进的过程

Core Viewpoint - The core position is that the dominance of the US dollar in the global economy is entering a decline phase due to internal economic structures and policy choices in the US, rather than external challenges [1]. Group 1: Global Economic Changes - The global economic landscape is undergoing profound changes, leading to structural pressures on the dollar's core position in international trade and finance [1]. - The long-term imbalance in modern global trade has been sustained since the dollar decoupled from gold in 1971, allowing some countries to maintain trade surpluses while the US continues to act as a global liquidity provider [3]. Group 2: Risks to the US Dollar - The main risks to the dollar's global circulation stem from changes in the US domestic economic structure, including a declining manufacturing sector and widening income distribution gaps, making it difficult for the US to maintain balanced economic growth through globalization [3]. - The US faces a policy dilemma: continuing to push dollars abroad to sustain global demand may lead to structural issues and social conflicts domestically, while reducing dollar outflow to stabilize the domestic economy could decrease global trade demand [3]. Group 3: Implications for China - For China's economic development, three key insights are highlighted: 1. The internationalization of the renminbi should focus on maintaining trade stability rather than attempting to replace the dollar, as excessive pursuit of becoming a reserve currency may increase outflow pressures and impact domestic industrial structure [4]. 2. In response to the trend of reduced global demand from the US, China should accelerate domestic demand construction through consumption upgrades and investment to buffer export pressures [4]. 3. Short-term attention should be paid to the impact of US domestic policies on external demand, including adjustments in fiscal and monetary policies, which will directly affect China's exports and external demand trends [4]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The decline of the dollar's global circulation is expected to be a long-term and gradual process, potentially lasting 20 to 30 years [5]. - For China, the strategic focus should be on stabilizing external demand, accelerating domestic demand development, and promoting the steady internationalization of the renminbi, rather than pursuing a short-term goal of replacing the dollar [5].