1月11日【油价大涨】原油双双“大涨超5%”，国内油价跌幅持续收窄，转涨风险加剧

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oil market is currently experiencing a downward adjustment phase, but due to the recent surge in international oil prices, the decline is expected to narrow, potentially leading to a price increase in the near future, marking the first price hike of 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Adjustment Dynamics - As of January 11, 2026, the second round of oil price adjustment has completed 30% of its pricing cycle, with current expectations indicating a narrowing of the price drop to approximately 50 yuan/ton, translating to a decrease of 0.04 to 0.05 yuan per liter [1]. - The first round of oil price adjustment for 2026 was implemented on January 6, 2026, but did not meet the criteria for an increase, resulting in a continued low price level, which has been beneficial for consumers [1]. - The recent international oil price increases have significantly impacted the domestic pricing cycle, with expectations that the current downward trend may shift to a stable phase, followed by a potential increase [2]. Group 2: International Oil Price Trends - On January 10, 2026, international oil prices rose for two consecutive trading days, with WTI crude oil reaching $59.12 per barrel and Brent crude oil at $63.34 per barrel, marking a cumulative increase of 5.59% and 5.64% respectively over two days [2]. - The average price of WTI crude oil for the first four days of the current pricing cycle is $57.50 per barrel, while Brent crude oil averages $61.50 per barrel, indicating a significant rise above previous cycle averages [2]. - The upcoming oil price adjustment window is set for January 20, 2026, with the next seven statistical days being crucial for determining the final price adjustments [2]. Group 3: Current Domestic Fuel Prices - As of January 11, 2026, the average prices for refined oil products in China are as follows: 92 gasoline at 6.7 yuan/liter, 95 gasoline at 7.15 yuan/liter, and 0 diesel at 6.31 yuan/liter, reflecting a near four-year low [4]. - Consumers are advised to monitor international oil price trends closely and plan their refueling accordingly to mitigate potential increases in fuel costs [4].