财经随笔记：黄金走势推演与后市机会分析（2026.1.11）

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices experienced a strong upward trend this week, with significant movements including a rise on Monday and Tuesday, a pullback on Wednesday, and a strong rally on Friday following non-farm payroll data, ultimately closing the week with a bullish candlestick [1] Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have been significantly delayed, with market predictions suggesting a potential delay until May or later, as major investment banks have adjusted their forecasts [2] - Key economic data to watch includes the U.S. December CPI, with expectations of persistent high inflation; a core CPI monthly increase of 0.3% or more could strengthen the dollar, while a lower figure may boost gold prices [3] - Geopolitical risks are rising, with tensions from Trump's remarks on Greenland and ongoing protests in Iran, which could increase demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The current gold price movement is identified as part of a fifth wave upward structure, with critical support at 4274; if this level holds, further upward movement is anticipated [7] - Resistance levels to monitor include the previous high of 4550 and the 4580-4600 range, which is crucial for the next week [10] - The lower support range of 4405-4395 is significant, as it has shown strength after a recent breakout; if upward movement encounters resistance, adjustments may be necessary [10]