2026最大的交易主题：输不起的特朗普，国际秩序的终结

Group 1 - The core narrative for 2026 is shaped by the midterm elections, with the Trump administration under pressure to regain support, currently at around 40%, which is significantly lower than historical norms [3] - The administration's strategy will focus on achieving "affordability" by aggressively lowering oil prices, targeting a gasoline price of $2.25 per gallon before the elections [4][5] - The geopolitical actions taken by the U.S. to control oil resources, particularly in Venezuela, signify the end of the post-war rules-based international order, impacting global asset pricing [4][8] Group 2 - The anticipated fiscal stimulus, potentially involving $2,000 checks for low-income Americans funded by tariff revenues, aims to alleviate living costs and could shift the economic landscape [6][7] - The shift in international order will lead to increased geopolitical risks for emerging market stocks, while defense spending and gold investments are expected to rise as a hedge against instability [2][8] - The current high valuations in the U.S. stock market pose a significant risk, with potential declines of 20%-30% threatening economic stability and the Trump administration's re-election efforts [9]