Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-11 09:12Core Insights - The U.S. tech bubble from 1995 to 2000 was driven by technological advancements, macroeconomic changes, regulatory relaxation, and monetary policy adjustments, providing valuable lessons for today's market [1] Group 1: Formation of the Bubble - The bubble was fueled by multiple core drivers, including the internet revolution that significantly increased U.S. labor productivity and a macroeconomic environment that maintained resilience during the 1997-1998 overseas crisis [1][2] - The 1996 Telecommunications Act created a unified internet market, while relaxed financial regulations encouraged mixed operations, contributing to the bubble's formation [1][2] - The monetary policy under Alan Greenspan was initially flexible and technology-friendly from 1995 to 1999, only shifting to a restrictive stance in 2000 to curb stock market overheating [1][2] Group 2: Evolution of the Bubble - The bubble's evolution can be divided into three phases: - 1995-1997 marked the prologue, with the IPO of Netscape in 1995 igniting a tech IPO boom and a balanced market development [2][31] - 1998-1999 saw an investment climax, with capital flowing into the U.S. due to overseas turmoil and the Federal Reserve's emergency rate cuts, leading to a surge in tech stocks [2][42] - The bubble burst in 2000 due to multiple factors, including continuous rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, cash flow crises in internet companies, and the Microsoft antitrust case, resulting in a significant drop in the Nasdaq index [2][42] Group 3: Underlying Logic of the Bubble - The core logic behind the bubble is evident: loose liquidity and responsive monetary policy formed the foundation, while the profit-seeking nature of capitalism and regulatory relaxation acted as the driving force [2][3] - Uncontrolled leverage expansion, driven by credit descent, was crucial in pushing the bubble to extremes, with stock option incentives and lax accounting rules contributing to capital inflation [2][3] Group 4: Lessons Learned - The essence of technological progress is productivity improvement, and excessive capital investment during periods of enthusiasm can hinder efficiency gains [3] - Investors should be cautious of narratives detached from fundamentals, emphasizing cash flow and real profitability [3] - Regulatory frameworks must balance innovation and risk to prevent excessive leverage, while monetary policy should consider multiple objectives and carefully manage liquidity adjustments [3]