宋清辉：美国尚未出现系统性失业风险，美联储年内预计降息2至3次

Group 1 - The latest data indicates that the U.S. job market momentum is declining, but the drop in the unemployment rate suggests that labor participation and job matching conditions remain healthy, indicating no systemic unemployment risk in the U.S. [1][6] - The non-manufacturing data reflects that the service sector, which constitutes the largest share of the U.S. economy, remains prosperous, and the recent peak in consumer confidence is a crucial underlying logic supporting the fundamentals of the U.S. stock market [1][6] - In December 2025, the U.S. non-farm employment increased by 50,000, which was below the previous value of 64,000, while the unemployment rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 4.4%, better than market expectations [3][4] Group 2 - The private sector added 37,000 jobs in December 2025, which was below the market expectation of 68,000, with notable declines in construction and manufacturing jobs, while private service sector employment increased by 58,000 [4] - The ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 54.4, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous value, indicating strong economic demand [4] - Major banks predict that the Federal Reserve may implement at least two rate cuts this year, with expectations shifting towards cuts in June and September rather than earlier in the year [7]