国金证券：整体仍在趋势之中，结构上存在过热

Group 1 - The improvement in market liquidity is identified as the direct driver for the A-share market's rise since late December 2025, with a notable increase of over 125 billion yuan in margin financing balance within half a month [1] - The active financing buying has significantly boosted the total trading volume of the A-share market by over 35%, alongside a rebound in implied volatility of broad-based index options [1] - Historical data shows that similar conditions, where the A-share market rose nearly 10% with a trading volume increase exceeding 30%, have occurred six times in the past decade, with four instances occurring at the beginning of the year [1] Group 2 - Following significant volume increases, there is a high probability of the A-share market strengthening over the next 10, 20, and 250 trading days based on historical trends [1] - However, the overall high success rate should not overlook structural overheating, as the commercial aerospace index has seen a substantial rise in turnover rate and trading volume share [1] - The speed of the increase in trading volume share has outpaced several key thematic market trends since 2020, indicating a need for fundamental support to match the rapid rise in trading concentration [1]