博时基金发布2026年宏观策略报告

Group 1: Macro Strategy - The report indicates that the preferred path for the Federal Reserve is easing, leading to higher long-term interest rates and fluctuating dollar values, with a focus on industry logic and external factors affecting this path [1] - Key factors to observe include the potential negative feedback from AI on interest rates/debt, the performance of non-AI sectors, and external influences such as the yen, Fed independence, and fiscal sustainability impacting the dollar [1] - The outlook for the RMB exchange rate is positive, with expectations of stabilization in earnings and slightly favorable supply-demand dynamics in the equity market [1] Group 2: Equity Market Insights - The report suggests that growth sectors still have many highlights, with cyclical opportunities arising from expectations of PPI recovery, indicating a potential rotation in investment focus [1] - From an industry cycle perspective, sectors like telecommunications, electronics, and non-ferrous metals need to balance valuations amid high prosperity, while power equipment and chemicals are positioned favorably for investment [1] - Short-term trends indicate that small-cap stocks may outperform before the Spring Festival, with industry differentiation possibly expanding or collapsing in a trend [1] Group 3: Fixed Income and Other Assets - In the fixed income market, short-term interest rates have a higher safety margin compared to long-term rates, with a stable short-term rate environment and increased volatility in long-term rates expected [2] - The report notes that the trading opportunities in the bond market may arise from weaker-than-expected external demand or continued declines in real estate prices [2] - Regarding other assets, U.S. Treasury yields are strong, gold remains crowded but has a sustained long-term logic, and oil is expected to be weak in the initial phase of interest rate cuts [3]