美媒：特朗普的算盘空了，委内瑞拉的高价油，中国连一桶都不肯买

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. strategy to impose sanctions and military actions on Venezuela's oil resources has backfired, revealing the limitations of political intervention in market dynamics, as China successfully diversified its oil sources and reduced reliance on Venezuelan oil [2][5][15]. Group 1: U.S. Sanctions and Political Actions - After taking office in January 2025, the Trump administration tightened policies against Venezuela, including revoking Chevron's exemptions and threatening tariffs on countries buying Venezuelan oil [5]. - The sanctions aimed to cut off Venezuela's revenue by targeting China, which accounted for over 80% of Venezuela's oil exports in 2025 [5]. - The U.S. expected that sanctions would force China to pay higher prices for Venezuelan oil, but China had sufficient reserves and alternative sources to mitigate the impact [8][10]. Group 2: China's Response and Market Dynamics - As sanctions escalated, logistical disruptions led to increased shipping costs, prompting Chinese buyers to reject higher-priced Venezuelan oil [8][10]. - By March 2025, China's imports of Venezuelan oil sharply declined as they turned to more stable sources like Iran and Russia, which offered discounts of around $10 per barrel [10][12]. - China's oil imports from Venezuela dropped to only 4.5% of total imports, demonstrating its ability to adapt and maintain energy security through diversified sourcing [12][14]. Group 3: Impact of Military Actions - In January 2026, U.S. special forces captured Venezuelan leaders, leading to a temporary agreement for Venezuela to supply oil to the U.S. [12]. - The Brent crude oil price fell below $70 due to the influx of Venezuelan oil, but China's reliance on this source remained limited [12][14]. - The U.S. aimed to revitalize Venezuela's oil industry, but significant investment and time would be required to restore production levels [12][17]. Group 4: Market Realities and Future Outlook - The U.S. strategy underestimated China's oil reserve capacity and its ability to pivot to other suppliers, resulting in Venezuela's production cuts benefiting China [15][17]. - The ongoing military actions and sanctions have led to a chaotic transitional period in Venezuela, with the market ultimately dictating the energy landscape rather than political maneuvers [17]. - The shift in trade flows and the resilience of China's energy strategy highlight the limitations of U.S. political interventions in the oil market [17].