前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙：美元信用受质疑 国际货币体系迎变局

Core Viewpoint - The post-World War II dollar-dominated international monetary system is facing multiple challenges, with the erosion of dollar credit, but its hegemonic status is unlikely to be shaken in the short term. Meanwhile, the internationalization of the renminbi is progressing steadily, with its settlement share expected to exceed 10%, positioning it among the top three global payment currencies, thereby creating favorable conditions for economic development [1][4]. Group 1: Dollar's Challenges - The recent decline in the dollar index is attributed to multiple factors, including a slowdown in U.S. economic growth, continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the impact of renminbi internationalization on some dollar payment shares [4][5]. - The U.S. government's high debt levels are a key factor undermining dollar credit, with the political cycle exacerbating fiscal deficit pressures due to election candidates promising tax cuts and increased welfare [4][5]. Group 2: Future of the Dollar - Despite challenges, the dollar is expected to remain the leading international reserve and payment currency for many years, although its share in the global monetary system may gradually decline [5]. - The introduction of stablecoins is seen as a way for the dollar to maintain its dominance in international trade settlements, a trend that may continue in ten-year cycles [5]. Group 3: Renminbi's Role - China is actively promoting the internationalization of the renminbi to reduce excessive reliance on dollar settlements in international trade [5]. - The renminbi's settlement share in global trade is projected to exceed 10%, placing it among the top three payment currencies, particularly in trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative and in transactions of major commodities like oil [5].