“妖”镍重现？印尼政策扰动，镍价坐上“过山车”

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant volatility in the global nickel market, driven by policy changes in Indonesia, which has led to sharp price fluctuations and concerns over supply shortages [1][2]. - Indonesia's nickel production reduction plan, cutting quotas from 379 million tons to 250 million tons, has raised fears of supply constraints, potentially shifting the global nickel market from surplus to a tight balance or even structural shortage [2][5]. - Nickel prices have seen a dramatic increase, with the Shanghai nickel futures rising nearly 25% over 17 trading days, but the market fundamentals remain weak, as LME nickel inventories are above 250,000 tons and domestic refined nickel stocks have increased by 35% year-on-year [2][5]. Group 2 - Nickel-related resource companies in the A-share market have benefited from the price surge, with significant stock price increases observed since the New Year, including China First Heavy Industries and Huayou Cobalt, which saw gains of 36.96% and 11.27% respectively [4]. - Despite the recent price rebound, the overall nickel market is still characterized by oversupply, and analysts suggest that the recent price increases are more reflective of macro trading logic rather than actual supply-demand improvements [5]. - The uncertainty surrounding Indonesia's nickel mining policies continues to pose risks, with expectations of further price corrections in the medium to long term due to persistent oversupply pressures in the nickel industry [5].