市场化下光伏产业链面临价值重估

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant policy shift in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, marked by the cancellation of export VAT rebates and the cessation of industry self-regulation, indicating a historical turning point for the sector [2][3]. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of export VAT rebates for PV products starting April 1, 2026, transitioning the industry into a "no rebate subsidy" phase [3]. - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate follows a period of declining export prices and increased competition in overseas markets, leading to substantial losses across the industry [3][4]. Group 2 - The market reacted sharply to these changes, with significant declines in the prices of polysilicon futures and related stocks, indicating a loss of investor confidence [4][8]. - The recent discussions between the State Administration for Market Regulation and leading companies in the PV sector, including Tongwei Co. and Daqo New Energy, focused on addressing monopoly risks and enforcing compliance with new regulations [4][5]. - Despite rising prices for upstream materials like polysilicon and silicon wafers, downstream component prices have not followed suit, leading to squeezed margins for developers [5][6]. Group 3 - The first quarter is traditionally a slow season for the PV industry, and the anticipated price increases for components face resistance due to weak demand [6][7]. - The shift in policy is prompting a reevaluation of the PV sector's value in the capital markets, with significant sell-offs observed in the stock prices of major companies [7][8]. - Analysts suggest that while the overall valuation of the PV industry is at historical lows, the uncertainty surrounding future profitability and market dynamics poses challenges for attracting investment [8].