洪灏：当前全球主要央行均进入扩表周期，流动性充沛叠加周期顶峰效应，大概率将催生一轮“伟大的泡沫”

Core Viewpoint - The presentation discusses the outlook for 2026, emphasizing the implications of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and its effects on the U.S. economy and global markets [3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Impact - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has decreased from a peak of $9.1 trillion in 2022 to just over $6 trillion, resulting in a $3 trillion reduction [3]. - As the Fed's balance sheet shrinks, new job growth in the U.S. continues to decline, significantly impacting low-income groups [3]. - The tightening of short-term liquidity has led to a significant rise in repo rates, affecting various financial market operations, including hedge fund arbitrage costs [3]. Group 2: U.S.-China Relations and Inflation - China's current account surplus continues to reach new highs, with strong export performance that constrains the downward potential of U.S. long-term inflation expectations [4]. - The U.S. yield curve is expected to steepen, with long-term rates remaining high due to persistent inflation expectations, while short-term rates decline as the Fed cuts rates [4]. - If U.S. long-term inflation expectations remain uncontrolled, further Fed rate cuts could weaken the dollar's credibility and drive up precious metal prices [4]. Group 3: Precious Metals Outlook - Gold is projected to have a fair value between $4,300 and $4,500, based on a "cup and handle" technical pattern, indicating a high probability of price increase [5]. - Silver has formed a textbook "cup and handle" pattern over 60 years, suggesting significant upside potential, with prices expected to rise alongside gold [6]. - Global liquidity is on the rise, aligning with the Fed's easing policies, which supports the bullish outlook for both gold and silver [7]. Group 4: Investment Strategies and Market Cycles - The historical relationship between gold and the S&P 500 indicates that gold often serves as a safe-haven asset, with both assets sometimes moving in tandem [8]. - The S&P 500 is currently at a cyclical peak, with historical patterns suggesting that this phase may lead to asset bubbles, particularly in neglected assets and new asset classes like cryptocurrencies [9]. - The current global liquidity environment, combined with the peak of the market cycle, is likely to create a "great bubble," presenting significant investment opportunities [9].