Group 1 - The December 2025 non-farm payroll report showed an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate to 4.4%, providing a strong rationale for the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates [2][5][6] - The report indicated a significant slowdown in job growth, with only 50,000 jobs added in December, compared to an expected 70,000, and a total of 584,000 jobs added in 2025, a sharp decline from 2 million in 2024 [3][4] - The hospitality sector led job growth in December with 27,000 new positions, while retail saw a decrease of 25,000 jobs [3][4] Group 2 - The average monthly job additions in the private sector for 2025 were 61,000, marking the weakest growth since 2003 during a period of economic expansion without corresponding job recovery [4] - The report's mixed signals suggest a "recruitment recession," where economic growth continues but hiring does not keep pace, creating a "no job prosperity" scenario [5][8] - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have shifted, with predictions now leaning towards potential cuts in April or June 2026, rather than January [7][8]
非农喜忧参半 美联储降息概率全面走低
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-11 13:51