双碳研究 | 电网瓶颈加剧：欧洲2024年弃电逾10太瓦时

Core Insights - The issue of renewable energy curtailment in Europe is worsening, with over 10 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity expected to be curtailed in 2024, and projections indicate that by 2030, the curtailment in the UK, Spain, and Italy alone could approach 22 TWh [4][5] - The European renewable energy market has seen over 150% growth in installed capacity over the past decade, and to support this expansion, an estimated investment of approximately €1.5 trillion will be required by 2050 [4] - The development risks remain a key constraint on the growth of renewable energy in Europe, with over 1,000 gigawatts (GW) of renewable projects currently awaiting grid connection approval [5] Investment Needs - By 2030, Europe will require around €600 billion in new investments to meet climate goals and replace aging fossil fuel power generation facilities [6] - Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) are expected to remain the primary market entry path for renewable energy projects, although their attractiveness varies significantly across different countries and technologies [6] Market Mechanisms - Two-sided Contracts for Difference (CfDs) will continue to be the main support mechanism in most European markets, with 162 GW of renewable capacity planned for procurement through auctions by 2030 [7] - Recent auction challenges in offshore wind sectors in Germany, the Netherlands, and Denmark have raised concerns about investor confidence due to supply chain pressures and political uncertainties [7] Price Pressures - The increasing frequency of negative electricity prices poses a systemic risk, with many markets expected to exceed 2024 levels of negative pricing hours by 2025 [8] - The expectation is that negative price pressures may ease after 2035 as electricity demand rises and the flexibility of the power system improves [8] Policy and Regulatory Framework - The European Grids Package is seen as a step in the right direction to accelerate approval processes and unlock stalled projects, which is crucial for realizing the potential of the upcoming investment wave in renewable energy [8]