管涛：众口一词的人民币升值“真相”｜立方大家谈

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent strengthening of the RMB against the USD, highlighting that the narrative around RMB appreciation lacks substantial data and theoretical support, despite claims from foreign investment banks about its structural undervaluation and potential asset revaluation in China [1][2][4]. Exchange Rate Trends - From July 2023 to February 2025, the RMB faced overall pressure, with a notable shift to a surplus in bank foreign exchange settlements starting March 2025, accumulating a surplus of $273.3 billion by November 2025 [2][4]. - In November 2025, the bank's foreign exchange settlement surplus was $29.7 billion, a modest increase from the previous month, indicating a lack of strong market consensus on RMB appreciation [2][4]. Market Behavior - The improvement in the foreign exchange situation is attributed more to a decrease in the motivation to purchase foreign currency rather than an increase in the willingness to settle foreign exchange [4]. - The average settlement rate for foreign currency receipts increased to 54.6% from July 2023 to February 2025, while the payment rate decreased to 58.8%, suggesting a natural hedging against exchange rate risks rather than a bullish sentiment towards RMB [4]. Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) - The RMB's real effective exchange rate (REER) has depreciated by 16.7% since March 2022, contrasting with the appreciation of other major currencies, indicating a complex relationship between REER and nominal exchange rates [7][11]. - Despite the depreciation of the REER, it does not necessarily imply that the RMB is undervalued or will appreciate, as historical data shows inconsistent relationships between REER movements and nominal exchange rates [7][18]. Trade Balance and Economic Indicators - China has maintained a significant trade surplus, while Japan has faced trade deficits since 2021, yet China's overall current account surplus remains within international warning limits [12][15]. - The article emphasizes that while a trade surplus may suggest RMB undervaluation, domestic economic conditions, such as low inflation and nominal growth rates, could indicate overvaluation [15][23]. Impact on Corporate Earnings - Analysis of A-share listed companies from 2015 to 2022 shows that a higher percentage of non-financial firms reported net exchange gains during depreciation years compared to appreciation years, suggesting that RMB appreciation may not necessarily benefit corporate earnings [21][23]. - The shift from net external debt to net external assets for Chinese firms raises concerns that significant RMB appreciation could lead to net exchange losses, adversely affecting corporate profitability [23].