12月“零批”双增 2025年新能源车翘尾收官

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese passenger car market is expected to see retail sales of 23.74 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, with wholesale volume reaching 29.55 million units, up 8.8%, driven significantly by the growth of new energy vehicles (NEVs) [1] Group 1: Market Growth and Projections - In 2025, the wholesale volume of new energy passenger vehicles is projected to be 15.32 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.2%, while retail sales are expected to reach 12.81 million units, up 17.6%, achieving a retail penetration rate of 54% [1] - The new energy segment is identified as the most reliable source of growth in the passenger car market, with December 2025 showing a wholesale volume of 1.563 million units, a 3.3% increase year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Segmentation - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is nearing 60%, indicating a shift towards a "new energy-dominated" market phase, with new energy vehicles growing at a rate 32.6 percentage points higher than traditional fuel vehicles [2] - In December 2025, retail sales of pure electric vehicles reached 782,000 units, maintaining positive growth, while range-extended models saw a higher growth rate of 15.4% year-on-year [2] - The market share of new energy vehicles from new force brands increased, with pure electric and range-extended models' share shifting from 59%:41% in 2024 to 71%:29% in 2025 [2] Group 3: Brand Performance and Export Trends - New force brands captured a retail market share of 23.5% in December 2025, an increase of 4.9 percentage points year-on-year, with traditional independent brands performing strongly [3] - The export of passenger vehicles reached 588,000 units in December 2025, a 46.2% increase, with new energy vehicles accounting for 46.4% of total exports, marking a 15.6 percentage point increase [3] - Pure electric vehicles constituted 57.9% of new energy vehicle exports, with A00 and A0 class models making up 68% of pure electric vehicle exports [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall growth rate for China's new energy vehicle market is projected to be around 10% in 2026 [4]