美国能源巨头在越南发现巨型石油储量，越南成最大赢家还是棋子？

Group 1 - The discovery of 430 million barrels of oil equivalent at the Hai Su Wang oil field by Murphy Oil is a significant geological success, providing a critical lifeline for Vietnam's energy security as its oil production is projected to plummet from 365,000 barrels per day in 2005 to less than 120,000 barrels per day by 2025 [1][3] - Murphy Oil's involvement represents a "technical takeover" of Vietnam's energy supply chain, as the state-owned Vietnam National Oil and Gas Group has reached its limits in upstream exploration capabilities, with rising water cut in existing fields and production costs nearing the breakeven point of Brent crude [3] - The urgency of Vietnam's energy needs is highlighted by its reliance on high-priced crude oil purchases from international markets before Murphy Oil's new wells come online, which will strain its foreign exchange reserves and exacerbate fiscal deficits [5] Group 2 - The infrastructure in the Kien Giang Basin is outdated and has not been maintained, raising concerns about the reliability of pipelines and platforms, which could lead to significant costs for Vietnam to develop the discovered reserves [5] - The geopolitical implications of Murphy Oil's drilling in the South China Sea are significant, as any shifts in regional political dynamics could render the discovered oil reserves as stranded assets, impacting their economic viability [5][7] - The process from discovery to production in deepwater oil and gas development typically takes 5 to 7 years, which means Vietnam's immediate energy gap needs to be addressed without delay [3]