众口一词的 人民币升值“真相”

Group 1 - Japan's current account surplus to GDP ratio is projected to reach 4.5% in 2024, increasing by 0.9 percentage points, and further rise to 5.1% in the first three quarters of 2025, exceeding the international warning line for two consecutive years [1] - The Chinese yuan (RMB) is expected to appreciate against the US dollar, with foreign investment banks suggesting that the RMB is structurally undervalued, predicting that RMB appreciation is the "highest conviction" trade for 2026 [1] - The RMB exchange rate has shown signs of appreciation since March 2025, with a cumulative surplus of $273.3 billion in bank foreign exchange settlements by November 2025, although there are concerns about the sustainability of this trend [2][3] Group 2 - The improvement in the foreign exchange situation is attributed more to a decrease in the motivation to purchase foreign currency rather than an increase in the willingness to settle foreign exchange [3] - The actual effective exchange rate (REER) of the RMB has depreciated by 16.7% since March 2022, indicating a potential undervaluation, but this does not guarantee an appreciation of the nominal exchange rate [5] - The RMB's REER has shown a weaker trend compared to other major currencies, with significant fluctuations in the exchange rate not necessarily correlating with the bank's foreign exchange settlement surplus [9][10] Group 3 - The trade balance indicates that while China has a strong goods trade surplus, it faces deficits in service trade and investment income, leading to a current account surplus to GDP ratio of 2.2% in 2024, which is below the international warning line [7][8] - The dynamics of the RMB's appreciation and its impact on asset prices are complex, with historical data showing that RMB appreciation does not always correlate with positive outcomes for Chinese assets [10][12] - The transition of China's private sector from net external debt to net external assets by 2025 may lead to net exchange losses for listed companies if the RMB appreciates significantly, affecting their profitability [11][12]