Down 21% From All-Time Highs, Is Progressive Stock a Buy?

Core Viewpoint - Progressive's stock appears undervalued after a 21% decline from its all-time highs, but the reasons for this discount require careful analysis [1] Business Performance - Progressive reported net premiums written of $63.7 billion for the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a 13% year-over-year increase, while net premiums earned rose 17% to $60.6 billion [2] - The company has a total of 38.1 million policies in force, which is a 12% increase year-over-year [5] - The combined ratio for Progressive stands at 89.5% in Q3, indicating an underwriting profit [6] Valuation Metrics - Shares are currently trading at approximately 13.4 times forward earnings and 3.6 times book value, down from a multiple of nearly 7 in early 2025 [7][8] - Despite the lower valuation compared to recent years, it does not appear particularly cheap when considering the company's historical valuation [8][9] Industry Context - Progressive operates in a regulated industry, facing challenges such as a $950 million accrual due to a Florida statute that requires insurers to return excess profits to policyholders, which impacted its combined ratio by 4.6 percentage points [10] - The auto insurance market is cyclical, and there are concerns about a potential shift from a hard market to a soft market, which could affect pricing and profitability [11] - Long-term uncertainties include the impact of advanced driver assistance systems and autonomous driving on the frequency of claims, potentially reducing profit pools for insurers [12] Dividend Policy - Progressive has a favorable dividend policy, including a recent special dividend of $13.50 on top of its regular $0.10 quarterly dividend, which adds value for shareholders [14][15] - The company's history of special dividends provides a level of risk mitigation for investors, especially in light of industry uncertainties [15] Investment Outlook - The recent pullback in Progressive's stock price, combined with strong growth and a more attractive valuation, makes it an interesting investment opportunity [16] - However, potential risks in the auto insurance market and technological disruptions should be considered when evaluating the stock [16][17]