到2030年的中国烯烃行业：五大趋势解析

Group 1 - Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that China's ethylene production capacity will expand by approximately 29 million tons per year from 2025 to 2029, a significant increase compared to the 24 million tons per year from 2020 to 2024, and more than five times the growth rate from 2000 to 2019 [3] - Over 70% of the new capacity is already in the development stage, indicating a strong pipeline for future growth [3] - The methanol-to-olefins process is experiencing a revival, with eight projects expected to start between Q1 2023 and Q3 2025, adding a total of 4.2 million tons per year of ethylene capacity [3] Group 2 - Steam cracking remains the primary driver of growth, with approximately 23 million tons per year of the upcoming ethylene capacity coming from this process, including both existing refinery upgrades and new greenfield projects [3] - The growth of propane dehydrogenation (PDH) capacity in China is expected to peak in 2025, with an addition of about 5.4 million tons per year, as many planned PDH projects have been shelved due to the country's near self-sufficiency in polypropylene [4] - The increase in polyethylene (PE) self-sufficiency is a key factor driving the surge in ethylene capacity, with China's annual polyethylene imports expected to remain between 14 million and 15 million tons by 2025 [4]