黄金首超美债，中国连续14次出手，特朗普施压，美元出大问题？

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, global central banks made a significant shift by prioritizing gold over U.S. Treasury bonds as their primary reserve asset, marking the first time since 1996 that gold surpassed U.S. debt in global central bank reserves, with gold valued at approximately $3.93 trillion compared to $3.88 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds [1][3]. Group 1: Central Bank Behavior - Central banks have been purchasing gold at record levels, with net purchases exceeding 1,000 tons annually for the past three years, nearly double the average of the previous decade [3]. - As of June 2025, 95% of surveyed central banks indicated plans to continue increasing their gold reserves, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019 [3]. - Emerging economies, particularly Russia and China, have significantly increased their gold holdings, with Russia accumulating 915 tons and China 544 tons over the past decade [5]. Group 2: Dollar Credibility and Economic Context - The safety of dollar assets has come under scrutiny, especially after the U.S. imposed sanctions on Russia, leading to a realization that dollar reserves could also be "weaponized," undermining the long-standing consensus on the safety of the dollar as a reserve asset [5]. - As of 2025, the U.S. national debt exceeded $37 trillion, with annual interest payments surpassing $1 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt [5]. - The dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has dropped to 42%, with the International Monetary Fund reporting a decline to 56.32% in mid-2025, the lowest since 1995 [15]. Group 3: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices have surged from $1,618 per ounce before the Fed's rate hike cycle began in 2022 to $4,584 per ounce by the end of 2025, reflecting a cumulative increase of nearly 180% [10]. - Analysts predict continued bullish trends for gold, with Goldman Sachs raising its price target to $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and suggesting potential spikes to $4,500 or even $5,000 per ounce under certain conditions [16]. - The trading volume in the gold market reached a historical high in October 2025, with daily trading averaging $561 billion, a 45% increase from previous levels [18].