美债投资者继续押注收益率曲线陡峭化交易

Core Viewpoint - Bond investors appear to have further room to expand their bets on the Federal Reserve's policy path for 2026 and the U.S. Treasury market trends, as last week's non-farm report indicated employment growth fell short of expectations, maintaining market expectations for further rate cuts by the Fed [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The disappointing employment growth has confirmed market expectations that short-term Treasuries, which are most sensitive to monetary policy, will outperform long-term Treasuries this year, thereby widening the yield gap between the two [1] - This strategy, known as "steepening trade," was one of the hottest bond trades for most of last year and continues to be effective at the beginning of 2026 [1] Group 2: Investment Insights - Capital Group's fixed income portfolio manager, Pramod Athruri, stated that there are many scenarios over the next 12 to 24 months that are favorable for steepening trade on the yield curve [1] - An analysis by JPMorgan of the 25 largest actively managed core bond funds shows that these funds still have a relatively high exposure to this trade from a historical perspective [1]