稀土不是终点，动作刚开始！高市押上国运的尝试：以选举影响外交

Core Viewpoint - China's rare earth companies have officially notified some Japanese firms to cease signing new export contracts and are evaluating whether to terminate existing contracts, indicating a shift from verbal protests to substantive actions in response to Japan's policies [1][8] Group 1: Impact on Japan's Economy - Japan's high-end manufacturing sector is heavily reliant on Chinese rare earths, with approximately 60% of its supply coming from China, which is critical for industries like automotive and electronics [3] - If the export restrictions on rare earths persist for three months, Japan could face economic losses amounting to several hundred billion yen, disrupting its manufacturing credibility and cycles [3][12] Group 2: Political Context - Japanese Prime Minister Kishi's political maneuvers, including plans for early elections, are seen as leveraging tough diplomatic stances against China to gain domestic support, despite the risks to the economy [5][7] - The current political strategy in Japan is viewed as a high-risk gamble that may exacerbate economic vulnerabilities while attempting to strengthen political power [7][14] Group 3: Strategic Implications - China's actions are not merely trade-related but are also aimed at managing risks associated with Japan's military ambitions and technology collaborations with the U.S., particularly concerning Taiwan [8][10] - The U.S. is perceived as using Japan as a strategic tool, which could lead to severe consequences for Japan if it relies on ambiguous U.S. commitments for security [10][12] - The ongoing situation illustrates a clear delineation of strategic boundaries, with Taiwan being a critical red line for China, and Japan's manufacturing and military sectors are at risk due to their dependence on Chinese resources [14]