出口退税全面取消 光伏行业转向市场驱动

Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products marks the end of the "rebate subsidy era" for the industry, leading to significant impacts on component manufacturers and a potential surge in exports before the policy takes effect [3][4][6]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products effective April 1, 2024, with a gradual reduction for battery products starting in 2026 [3][4]. - The announcement includes a list of 249 photovoltaic products and 22 battery products affected by the policy change [3]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that the adjustment aims to promote rational pricing in foreign markets and curb the rapid decline in export prices [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate is expected to significantly affect component manufacturers, leading to a "rush to export" before the policy takes effect [4][6]. - Major manufacturers like JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, JA Solar, and Longi Green Energy reported substantial losses in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenues of approximately 479.86 billion, 499.7 billion, 368.09 billion, and 509.15 billion respectively [5]. - JinkoSolar had the highest share of overseas revenue, exceeding 60%, while Longi Green Energy had the lowest at around 37.81% [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The industry is experiencing fierce competition, with export prices declining and a trend of "increased volume but decreased price" [4][6]. - The cancellation of the rebate is seen as a shift from a "policy-driven" to a "market-driven" approach, pushing companies to focus on value rather than price competition [8][9]. - Companies may need to upgrade technology and reduce production costs to maintain competitiveness, potentially leading to a shift of production capacity to regions with favorable tax conditions [8][9].